Question: You have them ranked as number one. Which can not
be, if they lost and are out then they can not be number one.
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Guru Ray: It's true they are number one on the web site.
However, I have the updated ratings on my computer. I will add today's
results to the updated ones and post them next week. My interest is
which teams are the best whether they are in the playoffs or not.
Deciding the champions is not my job. That's the teams' job on the
field. After the great season they had, I don't toss them away because
they lost a playoff game. You should worry about that other team at the
top.
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Question: How in the world is Burleson 3 still ranked, and
ranked in first place over Kennedale when Kennedale knocked them out of
the playoffs last week?
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Guru Ray: One game does not decide
which team is better. I consider all the games they've played. The
target for having the teams lined up correctly is after all the games
have been played. Each week they move toward their correct positions
but, in reality, the football season really isn't long enough. Yet no
matter how long the season might be, there would always be upsets. Those
upset can only be fairly well identified by looking backward with the
final ratings. Teams that are still winning will rise above teams that
are out assuming that they really are better. If you ever watch NFL
Football, you should know that the best team doesn't always win. Follow
it through to the end and we will have a much better idea of which teams
are best.
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Question: Burleson 3 is out they can not wil the super
bowl! How can they be ranked as #1?
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Guru Ray: I have gone through the season and playoffs so
far and applied a tweak I have recently introduced into the other
ratings I do. After recalculating the season they did actually come in
0.6 points behind number one. However, they still appear to be the
second best team. They are simply not playing anymore.
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Question: How did you come up with your top 5 rankings?
Only 2 of your top 5 are still playing. Those teams that are out of the
playoffs should be dropped down in the rankings behind the four teams
that are still in. Shouldn't Kennedale be number one and then Joshua 3
number two and so on with the other two Burleson teams. Just wondering?
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Guru Ray: A team that is going upward and loses against a
lesser team will go upward less. A team that is going downward and wins
against a better team will go downward less. One game does not affect a
team's rise or fall as much as people usually think it will. This system
is designed to place all the teams in the correct order over the entire
season, not one or two games. The teams that have been eliminated will
not climb. Teams that continue to win will.
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Question: After reading your answer to this question below
I am even more confused. You stated that Burleson only slowed Midlothian
3’s upward slope…but then you also say that Burleson 2’s
loss stymied their upward slope. These two comments are conflicting
especially since Burleson bounced back from their loss with a win but
still continued downward. You asked the question, why should one of them
be declining since both have more wins than losses. You had
Burleson declining two weeks in a row…they had more wins than losses
both of these weeks and one of these weeks they declined was after a
win. How could you possibly keep
Midlothian
in
front of Burleson after they lost to them. It seems as if one set of
rules does not apply to both teams. Also what about strength of
schedule? Does not seem to be considered in this case either.
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Guru Ray: Strength of schedule is
not an exact science. I use head to head. I also use linear regression.
a win or loss continues to add or subtract for several weeks. Teams do
not make sudden upward or downward turns. A team may continue declining
(usually less) after a win and other factors include games before and
after the game you are focusing on. Football barely has enough games in
a season to make an accurate rating of a team. The few weeks they have
played is very limited and the accuracy isn't even in the ballpark yet. Why
should one of them (immediately) be declining since both have more wins
than losses? How about the degree of the downward slope? The
ratings do not have a knee-jerk reaction but spread multiple games over
weeks. All change is gradual.
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Question: I was just curious how Minor Burleson 2 went down
in their rankings after beating
Midlothian
3 - 20 to 0. Last week Burleson 2 was at 80.0 and
Midlothian
3
was at 80.6 after Burleson won they dropped to 79.9 and
Midlothian
3
loses and moves up to 81.1. Not trying to be rude just wondering if it
was a mistake.
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Guru Ray: Four simple things:
1.
Midlothian
got off to a better start
2. 40-0 is treated the same as 3-0
3. Burleson's upward slope was stymied by a loss last week
4. Burleson only slowed
Midlothian
's upward slope, one loss did not stop it
Both teams have more wins than losses. Why should one of them be
declining?
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Question: How can one team beat another and still be rated
below them, when they are rated 5 and 6 or 6 and 7? That would be like
number 2 beating number one and still be rated number 2 the next week.
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Guru Ray: All teams start with the same rating. The results
of all the games they play determined their upward or downward slope.
Each game affects this slope but a team with a winning record will only
slow down after a loss, not collapse altogether. This system weighs all
the results together. There are pieces missing as we haven't finished
much of the season and playoffs. As more games are played, you will see
more of the affect of this loss.
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Football Mom: Hey
Mr. Guru: I'm a remedial football mom but I'm trying to learn ~ LOL.
Could you explain how the ratings are determined? I would really
appreciate it. Thanks.
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Guru Ray: It's really not
complicated. To make it simple, if a team that is supposed to win does,
it maintains its current rating. If it wins by more than was expected,
it is awarded a higher rating to a limited extent (blowouts aren't a
good indicator of the difference in strength between two teams). If a
team upsets another team, the lower-rated team is rewarded according to
how much stronger the other team appeared to be while the upset team is
equally downgraded. All changes are gradual as I have learned teams
don't always play like themselves. Hope that helps.
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